Tutorial
We post the number. You shop the books.
Get our number or better. If you cannot, sit. That one rule is the bet.
Membership is not a bet-for-you service. We build an independent number and post it. Getting that number, or a better one, from a sportsbook is your job. The spread is the number we stand on. Totals come later, from the private book — not on the card yet.
01
We build our number first
We rate the game and post the spread. We do not look at your book to do that. Totals are recorded in our private book and will land on the card when they are ready.
02
We post our number
If we have a team at −6, that is the spread. That is the starting point — shop it or better. We do not post pass, play, or units. Once the game starts, that ticket is frozen so you can look back.
03
You find the best line
DraftKings, FanDuel, Circa, a local book — they will not agree. Open more than one. Take the line that matches our number or beats it.
04
If you cannot get the number, sit
The edge lives in the number, not in being on the game. If every book has moved past our spread, the play is gone. Do not take a worse line just to have action. That is how a good ticket becomes a bad one.
05
Size the gap — not the logo
The bigger the price is in your favor versus our number, the more you may risk — still a small slice of bankroll. No gap means no bet, even if you love the team.
06
Do not bet the whole Saturday card
A 12-game board is not 12 bets. Most games your book will already be on our number. Pick the one to three games where the price is clearly better than what we posted. Sit on the rest.
A simple example — spread
We post Bills −6.5. That means Buffalo only if you can lay 6.5 or less.
- Our number
- Bills −6.5
- This is the number. Shop for it or better.
- Book A
- Bills −8
- Worse. Sit.
- Book B
- Bills −7
- Close. Only if nothing better.
- Book C
- Bills −6
- Better than ours. This is the ticket.
Same game, four prices. The member who shops wins more often than the member who taps the first app they open.
Totals — not on the card yet
Every final still updates our private scoring book (points for and against). When that book is thick enough, totals come back on the ticket the same way as the spread: our number, you shop. Until then we only post the side.
How to size: quarter Kelly, max 3%
Kelly says: bet more when the price is better than our number, bet nothing when it is not. Full Kelly assumes our number is perfect. It is not. Use one-quarter Kelly, and never more than 3% of bankroll on one game.
Worked example, spread, −110 juice, quarter Kelly:
- Gap vs us
- Your book
- How much of bankroll
- None
- You got our number
- Sit, or a token 0.5%.
- 1 point better
- We −6.5, you −5.5
- About 1%.
- 2 points better
- We −6.5, you −4.5
- About 2–2.5%.
- 3+ points better
- We −6.5, you −3.5
- Cap at 3%. Stop.
- Worse than us
- We −6.5, you −8
- Zero. Sit.
Copy that. Do not turn a 1% lean into half the bankroll because you like the team. The number already did the liking.
What “best line” means
- Spreads. Smaller favorite or bigger dog. Laying 3 is better than laying 3.5. Getting +7.5 is better than +7.
- Totals. A lower number on an under. A higher number on an over.
- Moneylines. Better plus-money, or less juice on a favorite. −150 is better than −170.
Saturday (and any fat card)
College football will throw 40 games at you. That is a menu, not a to-do list. Walk the board once. Mark only the games where your book is clearly off our number. Bet those. Leave the rest. Volume without a gap is how a good number still loses money.
Betting involves risk of loss. Nothing here is a guarantee. 21+ only. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.